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20 Jul 2025 10:48
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  •   Home > News > International

    After Ukraine, Kazakhstan could be Vladimir Putin's next target for invasion

    Concerns are growing that Kazakhstan could be at risk of a future Russian invasion, amid claims of the Kremlin's growing influence and signs of a cultural crackdown.


    Zhanar Sekerbayeva emerged from 10 days in custody earlier this year with a message.

    "This will not stop us," she told the ABC. "We are unstoppable."

    If the human-rights activist sounds determined after her stint behind bars in March, it is because she needs to be. Her work has been getting much more difficult lately.

    Dr Sekerbayeva has been rattling cages in her native Kazakhstan for years, but most recently, her projects with Feminita — the LGBT and women's liberation group she co-founded — have attracted attention.

    It is not just the government and authorities circling. The organisation's events have been crashed by counter protesters with a stated agenda to stop "same-sex love being forced on our children".

    Some people argue that what might seem like a simple case of two advocacy groups at opposing ends of the sociopolitical spectrum arguing is something more sinister.

    They warn Russia could be pulling the strings, and that Kazakhstan facing a Ukraine-style invasion is not out of the question.

    Kazakhstan declared its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 but retains close ties with Moscow.

    It shares a significant land border with Russia (at almost 7,600 kilometres, it is the world's longest continuous boundary line), and a trade relationship worth around $40 billion last year.

    Kazakhstan relies on the internet, electricity, and, in some regions, gas coming from Russia.

    But Dr Sekerbayeva argues the Kremlin's influence goes much further.

    Earlier this year, for example, Kazakh MPs started drafting laws that could require media outlets and NGOs that receive any funding from abroad to declare themselves as "foreign agents".

    Critics warn they are modelled on similar, sweeping powers in Russia, which were in 2022 expanded and can now be used by the Kremlin to prosecute dissenting voices.

    Dr Sekerbayeva said Kazakhstan's policies were "echoing" Russia's.

    "This has been happening for a long time," she said. "It's as if Kazakhstan is still a colony of the Russian Federation.

    "It copies and repeats all the legislative initiatives and statements made by Russian deputies, who, as you know, don't really understand women's rights or human rights."

    While Kazakhstan's "foreign agent" laws are not yet a reality, there are signs that a cultural crackdown is already underway.

    In April, a Kazakh court sentenced the founder of a satirical Instagram account to five years "restricted freedom" on charges of inciting ethnic and religious hatred.

    The 29-year-old blogger behind the account, Temirlan Yensebek, was held in pre-trial detention for two months after posting a song with offensive lyrics about Russians.

    Journalist Maria Remiga described that case as "a joke".

    "It's purely Russian influence. I've seen it before," she said.

    Remiga moved from Belarus to Kazakhstan in 2023, fearing for her safety in Vladimir Putin's puppet state, but is becoming increasingly concerned about the future in her new home.

    "Activists come out to protest and they are arrested or fined," she said.

    "I mean, I'm from a country where you can go to prison for pretty much anything, and even I am scared."

    'War in Ukraine has shown what Russia is capable of'

    Kazakhstan, officially, has a neutral stance on the Ukraine war, and has avoided direct criticisms of Russia since Mr Putin's invasion began in February 2022.

    Kate Mallinson, an associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Program at London-based policy institute Chatham House, said the situation was complex.

    "Russia's influence over countries like Kazakhstan has not waned since the beginning of the war," she said.

    "Conversely, Russia has felt it needs its kind of neighbourhoods — those allies — particularly Kazakhstan, which is one of its closest allies."

    At a press conference last year, Mr Putin described Kazakhstan as "practically a Russian-speaking country" and said the countries "should do our best to strengthen our ties".

    He said criticisms of this were "not in the interests of the Russian state".

    Ms Mallinson was in Kazakhstan when Russia invaded Ukraine.

    "I remember going down to breakfast in the hotel, and seeing all these grey faces. Kazakhs were saying: 'We could be next.'

    "Many Kazakhs were substituting the word 'Ukraine' with 'Kazakhstan' during the ominous Russian security council speech in February that year.

    "The war in Ukraine has shown what Russia is capable of in its 'near abroad'."

    Activists claim Russia's influence in Kazakhstan can be difficult to trace.

    Take an organisation called the Kazakhstani Union of Parents — an NGO registered in 2021 — for example. Critics contend it is an alt-right group.

    It has previously lobbied against COVID vaccines and last year successfully got the country's government to consider a petition calling for a law to "fully ban open and hidden propaganda of LGBT in Kazakhstan", which gained more than 50,000 signatures.

    The organisation's leader, Bagila Baltabayeva, gained notoriety after crashing one of Feminita's events with a group of women earlier this year.

    The police were called, amid claims minors were being "corrupted".

    Dr Sekerbayeva and another Feminita co-founder, Aqtorgyn Aqkenjebalasy, were arrested, charged with running a public activity linked to an unregistered social organisation, and detained for 10 days.

    "Bagila Baltabayeva repeats Russian propaganda, and the rhetoric of Russia's fascist regime," Dr Sekerbayeva said.

    The next day, another of Feminita's meetings was disrupted by a group that bills itself as a charity, named Rahym.

    The group's founder, Bibinur Sheralieva, posted a video online of several people bursting into the event and chanting: "Foreign agents, come out."

    Analysts argue these types of incidents can be a canary in the coal mine for something larger, and could be a sign of Russia's growing influence over Kazakhstan's culture and politics.

    Mutali Moskeu is another Queer activist worried about the direction the country is headed.

    He launched an online information portal for LGBT+ teenagers last year that was ultimately blocked by the Ministry of Culture, under pressure from groups, including the Kazakhstani Union of Parents.

    "They played a big part in our website being blocked," he said.

    "Unfortunately, over the past couple of years, the situation in Kazakhstan has worsened and continues to worsen."

    Dr Sekerbayeva is urging other people to wake up to what is going on in her country.

    "Kazakhstan must remember that it is an independent, sovereign, legal, democratic, secular state," she said.


    ABC




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