Ozempic and similar medications are revolutionising weight loss, with far-reaching economic effects

Just six months ago, simply keeping up with her kids felt like an impossible task for Sandra Senn.

Today, she keeps pace as they race ahead on a family walk.

She twirls around her eight-year-old daughter Murphy in the heat of the midday sun and kicks a soccer ball with her son Garrison.

"It's been a complete 180," the mum of two said.

"My son is a sports freak — he just loves playing soccer and basketball, and I wouldn't, at any stage, be playing with him. I was just too tired."

Both Mrs Senn and her husband began taking weight loss medications five months ago. And they say — from food and exercise to shopping habits and business success — it's completely changed their lives.

"It's actually been kind of amazing," Mrs Senn said, after losing 20 kilograms over those five months.

The couple started on the weight loss drug Mounjaro but, after side effects like gastrointestinal issues and nausea became too much, they switched to Wegovy -- which costs them $460 each a month.

The active ingredient in most weight loss drugs — including Mounjaro, Wegovy and Ozempic — mimics a hormone called glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1). That peptide slows digestion and sends fullness signals to the brain, resulting in people eating less. 

The growing popularity of GLP-1 medications is doing more than transforming waistlines.

The drugs have created ripples across the US economy in particular due to the country's large uptake — about 7 million Americans take the drugs, according to Morgan Stanely, and that number is predicted to rise to 24 million by 2035.

Mrs Senn said she was already witnessing improvements in her small business, due to her increased energy and less 'food noise' taking up mental space.

"Revenue has doubled in the past six months, we've launched new programs. So the growth has been quite huge."

Her shopping habits have also changed.

"[Food] shopping has gone from about $400 a week down to about $150 to $200. It's been a dramatic cut."

Her new-found confidence has even inspired her to book a Christmas getaway to Fiji, something she said she would have dreaded before.

Businesses adapt to Ozempic effect

Adam Spielman is the head of future health at Citigroup and co-authored a report looking at the reach of GLP-1 medications in the US and possible future commercial implications.

Mr Spielman said he was "absolutely convinced" GLP-1s would have "a really profound effect on the Australian economy", especially after 2031 when patents for the drugs end, allowing more competitors to enter the market.

"At that point, you'll start seeing generics coming in, which will be a lot cheaper … still a prescription in Australia, but easier to get."

The Citigroup report Obesity and Beyond predicts global capacity could reach the hundreds of millions over the next few years, which would have a significant impact on global productivity and the health economy.

Mr Spielman said a good example occurring now was the increase in people seeing a doctor. 

People who were overweight, he said, were often reluctant to see a doctor because they were sick of being lectured about their weight.

When people start to gain control of their weight, they're more likely to see a doctor, he said, and therefore more likely to accept help for conditions associated with weight gain such as kidney disease and sleep apnoea.

"Total demand in the short term for products related to obesity is actually going up. People live longer. People interact with the healthcare system for longer," Mr Spielman said.

"You would hope that over time, there'll just be less diabetics, less people with kidney disease. But over the next five years, demand for that sort of thing will increase."

ResMed — an Australian medical device company that makes CPAP machines for sleep apnoea and is worth $56 billion — saw a drop in its share price earlier this year largely due to the belief that GLP-1s would lead to fewer people suffering from sleep apnoea.

ResMed chief executive Mick Farrell told the ABC's The Business the opposite had occurred, with the company's data indicating patients with sleep apnoea using GLP-1 drugs were almost 11 per cent more likely to use a CPAP machine. 

Food and fashion reshaped

The food and fashion industries would see shifts too, Mr Spielman said.

Some studies indicate GLP-1s may change food preferences and reduce cravings for processed foods while boosting the desire for fresh fruit and vegetables.

"Most people [using GLP-1s] reduce their calorie consumption by about 30 to 35 per cent," Mr Spielman said. 

"Let's say 20 per cent of Australians end up taking these drugs. Simple maths will tell you that means to say that, roughly speaking, total calorie consumption in Australia will fall about 6 per cent."

That reduction would be uneven across the industry, he said, with fruit and vegetable growers among those likely to profit. 

"But if you're somebody like McDonald's or Burger King, it's a very different story," he added.

In the realm of fashion, some stores in New York had already seen the average size of a women's blouse decrease, Mr Spielman observed.

"It has gotten smaller. On top of that, people are more happy with their body so they're more likely to actually go out and buy clothes." 

'People see quick and easy'

For Queensland weight loss coach and personal trainer Lauren Antonenko, the rise of GLP-1 drugs has reshaped her approach to business.

Ms Antonenko said she'd had clients ghost her after initial consultations, and later found out they had started using weight loss drugs and no longer saw a need for her services.

"I've run into those people a couple of months later, and they've lost heaps of weight, and they very shyly said, 'I've been using a weight-loss drug'," she related.

"There are lots of negative effects of weight loss drugs. The biggest challenge we face is, you know, people see ... quick and easy."

She had hoped the drugs would be "a fad", she said. But with that looking less and less likely she instead pivoted her marketing to "work in tandem with weight loss drugs".

"The fitness industry really needs to help people understand it's a combination of both things that leads to lasting vitality," Ms Antonenko said.

"When people do finally get to shift some of that body fat that might have been holding them back from having the confidence and the courage to step into a gym in the first place."

A business opportunity

Despite the drugs' rapid uptake across the developed work, they are not without challenges.

Common side effects of the medications include nausea, gastrointestinal issues and headaches. 

Because weight loss is rapid, users often lose a significant amount of muscle mass.

One Australian business is cashing in on that.

Evolt makes 3D body scanners that break down body composition by scanning the body with an electrical current through the feet and hands.

The company's chief executive Ed Zouroudis said he had experienced a surge in demand from GPs, aesthetic clinics, and telehealth providers since GLP-1 drug sales took off.

"There's been a massive uplift in our business," Mr Zouroudis said.

Once a device primarily used by the fitness industry, Mr Zouroudis said more and more medical clinics in the US were ordering the machines to monitor patients using the drugs.

Year-on-year growth for the September quarter for machine sales was 66 per cent. 

But he wasn't sure demand would reach the same level in Australia.

"I think we've got tighter regulation here, which we always have had," he said.

"The TGA (Therapeutic Goods Administration) in Australia is quite stringent. So I don't think we'll get to the levels of the US, because it is so readily available over there currently."

The impact on productivity 

Excessive weight is linked to a number of chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and diabetes. 

A 2024 study from Deakin University found that overweight and obesity cost the Australian economy almost $12 billion in 2018. A 2010 study estimated the total direct cost of overweight and obesity in Australia in 2005 was $21 billion for adults aged 30 and over.

But some economists have warned that does not mean billions would be saved from having a large proportion of the population using weight loss drugs. In fact, it could cost the country just as much.

"If we're preventing patients developing chronic conditions associated with obesity, these people are going to develop other conditions. For example, the risk of cancer increases with age, and so we might see increases in cancer," said Flinders University health economist Jonathan Karnon. 

"So that's where I feel we need to be more realistic in terms of potential cost savings."

The medications would also, likely, need to be on the PBS to be accessible, as a high proportion of people who fall into the overweight and obese categories experience socio-economic disadvantage. 

"They've (the PBS) looked at subsidising them for a broader population and, to date, they've decided that the price the drug companies are requesting doesn't justify the benefits," Dr Karnon said.

"These drugs have significant benefits, and so we should be finding a way to try and fund them, but it's really going to involve a lot of negotiations with the drug companies."

The benefits to the economy as a whole are difficult to predict, Dr Karnon said, but he does believe there would be "some benefit". 

"The magnitude of that benefit is more uncertain, but I think it's important.

"For example, the fertility rate in Australia is declining, and we're going to need more people in the workforce to look after our older population. So I think there's potentially important benefits there."

Mr Spielman agrees. 

"Some doctors are saying this is going to lengthen human life. If you think that's true, that has huge impacts on the pension in Australia, for insurance, for housing for elderly people — really big ramifications. 

"They will change society. It will take decades for us to really understand what they do."