For decades, Japan's tight protection of its rice market — a symbol of cultural pride, postwar resilience and self-sufficiency — blocked broader trade deals.
Last month, rice was once again a sticking point during negotiations over the US "reciprocal tariffs" with President Donald Trump calling Japan a "spoiled" country that "won't take our rice".
However, this time Mr Trump forged what he framed as a tariffs breakthrough: Japan importing more US rice.
Rice prices have nearly doubled since last year across Japan.
A perfect storm of supply miscalculations and a bad harvest left supermarket shelves bare and sparked rare street protests, triggering the government to release emergency stockpiles.
But still the question remains: Are the Japanese public able to stomach foreign rice?
Cultural cornerstone
Rice is integral to history and political power in Japan.
Rice planting festivals remain an important ritual in rural areas, alongside offerings to ancestors during ceremonies to gods or weddings.
"It's a delicate tightrope between price and protecting our identity," said Yusuke Yokoyama, a Tokyo resident, who noticed many local restaurants had stopped offering free "refill" rice.
"People in Japan are generally happy to have lower prices for rice, but they also don't want to import it," he said.
In the late 19th century, as Japan faced geopolitical tensions while opening up to the West, rice was even woven into the military transformation.
Mr Yokoyama explained that many Japanese were aware of the historical connection of rice as a symbol of Japanese identity and sovereignty.
For example, a "rice wage" was an incentive to recruit soldiers, expanding from the previous exclusive samurai class.
In a nation where rice farming has been politically protected since the 1970s, the crisis is exposing the structural fragility of its agricultural sector.
Rice emerged as a top-three issue for voters in polling ahead of recent municipal elections, as customers and restaurants struggled with inflation and the far-right Sanseito party capitalised on the outrage.
CoCo ICHIBANYA, Japan's largest curry rice restaurant chain, raised its menu prices and saw a 5.2 per cent drop in customers between September last year and this year.
Retailers are resorting to marketing gimmicks.
Convenience store chain Lawson began selling rice balls made from the older grain, labelling them as "2023 Vintage" onigiri.
The attempt at humour — or damage control — was mocked online.
Politics built on rice
For decades, Tokyo maintained one of the most rigid agricultural systems in the developed world.
Under the now-defunct "gentan" policy, farmers were paid not to grow rice, and strict production targets were set to manage supply.
"Japan previously paid farmers to leave their fields fallow," said Jeffrey Kingston, professor of History and Asian Studies at Temple University Japan.
"The idea was to keep prices stable. But now we see how this entire system — combined with high tariffs and climate shocks — has become untenable."
Instead, it has contributed to what he describes as a "Byzantine" distribution network and mindset.
"The youngest farmer I know is 65," Mr Kingston said.
"The aging population will have adverse effects on the sector whether Tokyo likes it or not."
Nicole Freiner, author of Rice and Agricultural Policies in Japan, said the government's program to subsidise farmers to limit rice production because of declining demand was short-sighted.
"Even if Japan utilised most of its usable land, it still would not be self-sufficient," she said.
Instead, she encouraged the government to react more to consumers switching to wheat-based food.
"This policy created a lack of incentive for rice-growing that left rice paddies abandoned, with no opportunities for young farmers," Ms Freiner said.
Foreign pressure and rising discontent
Japan's protectionist stance has long frustrated international trade partners.
The United States, in particular, has pushed for greater access to Japan's rice market and the Trump administration made it their mission during the recent tariff negotiations.
Some netizens pushed back, sharing clips of an anime film where a Japanese character tells a pushy US politician that Japanese consumers prefer home-grown rice over California rice.
Japan imports 770,000 tonnes of foreign rice annually — but much of it has traditionally been used for processing or animal feed, not table rice.
Tokyo reached a deal with Washington in the latest tariff deal, increasing the proportion of US rice allocated for household consumption.
Mr Trump claimed that Japan had "caved" to US demands.
Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pushed back.
"We made absolutely no sacrifice in the agricultural sector," he told local media.
Marcel Thieliant, Asia Pacific analyst at Capital Economics, said Japan had negotiated cautiously, keeping the overall import quota unchanged, but a larger share of that quota would now come from the US, rather than other countries.
He rejected the narrative from Washington of a sweeping victory.
"I'm not aware of any plans to actually liberalise the market by lifting the import quota," he told the ABC.
"My sense is that Japan played their hand quite well because they didn't make major concessions."
Other analysts said the proportion change of staple rice imports — even within existing frameworks — may have signalled a gradual shift away from hardline protectionism.
"The [US] side deal is significant in symbolic terms; it may be an indication that Tokyo is becoming more willing to open its rice market — at least, when it needs help," Ms Freigner said.
"Whether or not these changes take hold and become more entrenched is not clear yet," she added.
For ordinary citizens, many remain uneasy and some local broadcasters have directed the blame at the rise in foreign tourists — including Australians — as Japan records an all-time high for international tourism figures.
"As the yen falls, locals have started to become angry," said Mr Kingston.
"They watch foreigners swaggering about, buying up real estate and eating cheap, while local households feel the pinch of inflation — even in their daily meal of rice."
The situation, he added, had created "a sense of malaise gripping people here".
Japan is struggling with low wages and inflation.
Since the July agreement, Japanese supermarket prices have fallen following the government's release of stockpiled rice.
But prices are still nearly double the same time last year.
Industry analysts note that the increase in imports of rice for human consumption has been modest so far relative to the scale of the domestic supply shortfall, and distribution has yet to catch up with rising consumer demand.
A system under pressure
Last year's harvest was devastated by record-breaking heat.
And with meteorological extremes becoming more common, experts say Japan's model of matching production to slowly declining demand is no longer sufficient.
"Climate is affecting harvesting rice and other products," said Mr Yokoyama.
"The policy may have to change. Our food security is not high, and people are starting to understand that now."
A sense of frustration has grown among farmers, angry at the regulations limiting how much rice they can grow, which spilled over into protests earlier this year.
Japan's food self-sufficiency rate has languished around 30–40 per cent for decades.
Despite pledges to raise it, little has changed.
One approach could be to subsidise farmers' production of rice instead of paying them not to, and export the surplus.
"What the government should do now is stop subsidising crop conversion," said Yusaku Yoshikawa, an agricultural aid consultant with Japanese Official Development Assistance Projects.
"Instead, they need to create a safety net for farmers against surplus-related market crashes," Mr Yoshikawa added.
Already, the government has dipped into emergency stockpiles to manage supply, but analysts warn that short-term fixes can't resolve long-term instability.
They must also be careful not to overcorrect, as producing too much rice now could lead to a glut and cause prices to crash.
"We're in a delicate moment," Mr Yoshikawa said.
"We've gone from rice scarcity last year to needing policy imagination. What's needed now is not just price control."
