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Warning: This story spoils the ending of the film Conclave
Italian cardinals have always been major players in the conclave, a secretive, centuries-old meeting in the Sistine Chapel to elect a new pope.
In the Oscar-winning film Conclave, released last year, they face off against formidable candidates from the Americas and Africa.
But the cardinal elected as pope in the movie defies expectations — he was not a fancied contender and comes from a Muslim-majority country.
This fictional scenario raises the real-life question: Could the late Pope Francis's replacement be chosen from a country where Catholics are not the majority?
A distinctive conclave
The actual conclave will begin in Rome on Wednesday and the new pope will be chosen by eligible cardinals from the College of Cardinals.
There are 252 cardinals, but only 135 of those are cardinal electors, meaning they are under the age of 80 so can vote — and be elected pope.
Two cardinals have confirmed they will not attend conclave because of health reasons, so 133 cardinals will take part.
Europe has 52 cardinal electors this time, Asia 23, Africa 17, South America 17 and North America 16, while Oceania and Central America have four cardinal electors each.
Australian Catholic University associate professor Joel Hodge said this conclave was distinctive because there were more cardinal electors from countries outside of Europe than in previous conclaves.
"There's still a strong European presence, but we now have countries that have never had cardinals before, for example, Timor-Leste in our region of South-East Asia has a cardinal for the first time," he said.
"He'll be participating in the election of a pope for the first time. That's historic."
Underdogs of the underdogs?
The papacy has historically been held by cardinals from countries with a Catholic majority.
Cardinals from non-European regions, like Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines, are considered underdog candidates of the conclave.
But what about cardinals from non-European and non-Catholic-majority countries? Are they the underdogs of the underdogs?
Dr Hodge said it was "certainly possible" the next pope could come from a country where Catholics were not the majority.
"It really just depends on the type of person, their theology, their spirituality, and their style of leadership."
During the conclave, Dr Hodge said "geopolitics would certainly be on the minds of the cardinals".
"The person who becomes pope needs to be able to manage very complex relations across the world."
Pope Francis selected cardinals from nations that were not predominantly Catholic, like Mongolia with a very small Catholic population, explained Dr Hodge.
But the likelihood of the next pope coming from a non-Catholic-majority country was unclear, Dr Hodge added.
"You never know with a conclave, because, as the Italian saying goes, 'You enter the conclave as pope, and you come out as cardinal.'"
That quote advises against assuming an outcome of the conclave, stressing that the election is not a matter of popularity, but a process to select Christ's representative on Earth.
"Sometimes, the favourite does get elected, or one of the frontrunners succeeds. Other times, there are surprises. So, we'll have to wait and see," said Dr Hodge.
Becoming pope a 'foolish' dream
After visiting Indonesia in 2024, Pope Francis noted that countries where Catholics were not dominant did not necessarily lack a vibrant church presence.
"In Indonesia, only about 10 per cent of the population is Christian, and just 3 per cent of them are Catholic, a minority," Pope Francis told a gathering in Vatican City in 2024.
"But what I found was a lively and dynamic church, capable of sustaining itself and spreading God's goodness in a country with an incredibly diverse culture, while at the same time being home to the world's largest Muslim population," he said.
Indonesia's cardinal, Ignatius Suharyo Hardjoatmodjo, is a cardinal elector who will attend the conclave.
Not only is he a non-European, like Cardinal Tagle of the Philippines, Cardinal Hardjoatmodjo also comes from a non-Catholic-majority country.
The name of this 74-year-old has barely been publicly mentioned ahead of the gathering — perhaps because he has never aspired to become pope, despite being known for his outspoken and progressive stance in Indonesia.
When the Indonesian government planned to hand out mining permits to religious organisations, Cardinal Hardjoatmodjo, who is the archbishop of Jakarta, firmly rejected the idea, citing church law that prohibits mixing religion with business.
"I'm not asking for mining permits or permission to build places of worship, I just want the state to do its job properly," he said at the time.
On another occasion, Cardinal Hardjoatmodjo said that "being chosen as pope is not about ambition, nor is it a career that keeps advancing — it is quite the opposite".
"If someone dreams of becoming pope, then, forgive me for saying this, but they are foolish," Cardinal Hardjoatmodjo told reporters in Jakarta.
Archdiocese of Jakarta secretary Vincentius Adi Prasojo, who has served alongside Cardinal Hardjoatmodjo for the past 12 years, said the cardinal had no ambition for power.
"I can assure you that there is only one thing he thinks about, and that is serving the church … he has no mission for power or position, and he only cares about serving the people," Mr Prasojo, who is visiting the Vatican prior to the conclave, told ABC.
But since anything can happen in the meeting, Mr Prasojo said Cardinal Hardjoatmodjo would "accept it as an act of obedience" if chosen as pope.
Also from a non-Catholic-majority country, Cardinal Charles Maung Bo of Myanmar, a Buddhist-majority country, has been touted as a possible candidate for the top job, and is considered to have a better chance in the papal election than Cardinal Hardjoatmodjo.
However, ACU's Dr Hodge explained that Cardinal Maung Bo's election was "probably unlikely".
"But he's had to show political, spiritual, and moral leadership in a very difficult situation in Myanmar, under civil conflict and military government and all that kind of thing," he said.
"So, he's an impressive person and someone who has had to manage and live in a very difficult situation, providing faith, spiritual guidance, and moral guidance."
'A lot of work to be done'
The last two conclaves ended within two days, when one candidate received two-thirds of the vote.
The longest conclave lasted almost three years to elect a successor to Pope Clement IV, beginning in November 1268 and ending in September 1271.
Whatever the case, Mr Prasojo said the conclave could run for some time.
"I think this conclave seems likely to be longer than usual because it seems like there are no dominant candidates … what the media has reported are just speculations," he said.
And whoever walks out of that room as the new pope has a long list of issues to address.
"Around church reform, particularly financial reform, safeguarding children, addressing the sexual abuse crisis, and investigating those crimes — these are ongoing issues," said Mr Hodge.
"There's still a lot of work to be done in these areas around the world, and the Vatican has to take the lead."
