Atomic scientists have moved their Doomsday Clock closer to midnight than ever before, citing Russian nuclear threats amid the war in Ukraine, the military use of AI and climate change.
It was reset on Wednesday to 89 seconds to midnight, making humanity one second closer to the theoretical point of annihilation than it was in 2024, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists said.
The Chicago-based nonprofit created the clock in 1947 during the Cold War tensions that followed World War Two to warn the public about how close humankind was to destroying the world.
"The factors shaping this year's decision — nuclear risk, climate change, the potential misuse of advances in biological science and a variety of other emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence — were not new in 2024. But we have seen insufficient progress in addressing the key challenges, and in many cases this is leading to increasingly negative and worrisome effects," said Daniel Holz, chair of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board.
"Setting the Doomsday Clock at 89 seconds to midnight is a warning to all world leaders," Mr Holz added.
Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine launched Europe's bloodiest conflict since World War Two.
"The war in Ukraine continues to loom as a large source of nuclear risk. That conflict could escalate to include nuclear weapons at any moment due to a rash decision or through accident and miscalculation," Mr Holz said.
What is the Doomsday Clock?
The doomsday clock is a symbol for humanity's proximity to a global catastrophe.
The clock is assessed in January every year by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board and its sponsors, which includes nine Nobel laureates.
The doomsday clock is a design that warns the public about how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making, according to the bulletin's website.
Midnight on the clock represents global catastrophe, with its minute and second hands denoting how close humanity is to that threat.
Who came up with the Doomsday Clock?
The clock was designed by an artist and wife of physicist Alexander Langsdorf Jr, Martyl.
"It was a panicky time," she told the Bulletin in 2007.
"It's hard to believe today that the word 'atom' was alien.
"The scientists, however, wanted to inform the public."
Dr Langsdorf Jr worked on the Manhattan Project, a top-secret World War II program involving hundreds of scientists and engineers that resulted in the development of the first atomic bomb.
He worked alongside Albert Einstein and L.Robert Oppenheimer, who helped found the board of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in 1945 with University of Chicago scientists.
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists president Rachel Bronson said the clock was first developed by scientists concerned about their involvement in developing the atomic bomb.
"In the wake of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, [they] felt deep responsibility for the consequences of their own work and could foresee new dangers on the horizon," Dr Bronson said.
The clock was first set at 7 minutes to midnight.
"It seemed the right time on the page … it suited my eye," she said.
Following its inception, Manhattan Project scientist and Bulletin editor Eugene Rabinowitch took over the setting of the clock.
It remained unchanged in 1948.
But Dr Rabinowitch moved it to just 3 minutes to midnight a year later when the Soviet Union exploded its first nuclear weapon in a testing site in Kazakhstan.
"The political disruption of the Atlantic community by the threat of Soviet atomic bombings may render the most expert and effective military planning of European defence illusory," Dr Rabinowitch wrote in his explanatory note at the time.
"This gloomy perspective must be analysed without passion or prejudice."
The Doomsday Clock was initially meant to track the threat of nuclear war, but has broadened in recent years to consider threats to global economies, politics, technology and climate change.
[graphic]It was at its furthest point from midnight — 17 minutes — following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
It moved to 90 seconds to midnight in 2023, the closest to disaster it has ever been, and remained there in 2024.
Who set the clock in 2025?
After Dr Rabinowitch's death in 1973, the bulletin's Science and Security Board has taken over setting the clock.
It is a group of 18 leading scientists and experts who work in politics, science, the environment, technology and more.
Nine Nobel Prize winners also advise on the decision.
The group meets twice a year in person in Chicago to discuss their views and consult with colleagues, and tracks potential trends and threats over the course of the 12 months.
"Even with all that brain power, there is no easy formula to answer how close we are to disaster," Dr Bronson said.
"Some years that lack of a clear answer invites debate."
In 2019 a physical "Doomsday Clock" was placed in the lobby of the bulletin's University of Chicago offices where the scientists regularly convene.
Each year scientists are asked two questions:
- Is humanity safer or at greater risk this year than last year?
- Is humanity safer or at greater risk compared to the 78 years the clock has been set?
Last year's bulletin said the war in Ukraine, nuclear escalation and climate change all contributed to the 90-seconds to midnight reading of the doomsday clock.
In the year since the clock was set, artificial intelligence has progressed, the Russia-Ukraine war continued, and the war in the Middle East has escalated.
There are also other active conflicts including in Sudan and the civil war in Syria, which toppled president Bashar al-Assad's regime late last year.
The Earth's average surface temperature in 2024 was also the warmest on record, 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
